Spain and the independence referendum: A social prediction

Many people make predictions in politics… after the event. Here is a prediction published before the results. My prediction is based on the computer models I use for social risk analytics. They’re not always perfect, but they’re often correct.

The independence vote wins. Why?

Because the remain voters have less of a feeling of loss. Their authorities have proclaimed the vote illegal, so they will likely not show up in the same way. None of their sacred values are violated and a moral imperative to follow authority is if they vote in the referendum.

Meanwhile, the independence vote is about a sacred value. So they will be more willing to risk imprisonment to vote and therefore will.

Really, the Spanish government’s refusal and treatment of the referendum is the biggest thing here.